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The recent 10th
National Party Congress has adopted overall goals for
socio-economic development for the next five years as follows:
“Speeding up economic growth, achieving an important change
in raising efficiency and in sustainability of development,
thus quickly bringing the country out of the status of an
under-developed nation.Improving noticeably people’s material,
cultural and spiritual life. Accelerating national
industrialisation and modernisation and developing a
knowledge-based economy, laying a firm foundation for
Vietnam to basically
become a modern industrial nation by 2020...”
Among those overall goals, there
are two important landmarks. First, by 2010, getting the
country out of underdevelopment. Second, by 2020, basically
turning the country into a modern industrial nation. These
landmarks constitute two phases of development, two major
steps forward in the process of national industrialisation and
modernisation.
Foundation laid by past achievements
The question is from which
ground has the 10th National Party Congress based
on to propose such goals? The answer comes from the past
decades of the process of modernising and industrialising the
country and the Party’s concept of “taking the country out
of underdevelopment”.
Right after the reunification of
the country, in 1976, the 4th National Party
Congress initiated a guideline for socialist construction for
the whole country, in which, industrialisation was considered
to be the central task of the transitional period. However,
for many reasons, objective and subjective alike, despite
certain progress, the country was plunged into long, severe
socio-economic crisis. In 1986, with the line for
comprehensive renovation, the 6th National Party
Congress put forth a task to overcome consequences of the
crisis (although it was then not yet referred to as a crisis),
to stabilise various socio-economic aspects, continue to
develop necessary premise for accelerating socialist
industrialisation in the next stage of development. Then with
major achievements of the 10 years’ renovation through the 7th
Party Congress (1991) and the 8th Party Congress
(1996), the Party came to the conclusion: Vietnam already came
out of the 15-year-long severe socio-economic crisis, created
some necessary conditions to move to the next stage of
development: boosting national industrialisation and
modernisation. So as of 1996, Vietnam actually embarked on the
phase of accelerating industrialisation and modernisation. In
2001, the 9th National Party Congress set out the “10-Year-
Strategy for socio economic development 2001-2010”, under
which, by 2010, the country will have basically got out of
underdevelopment and lay a foundation to basically become a
modern industrial nation by 2020.
So is it likely that the overall
goals for socio-economic development set out by the 10th
National Party Congress only reassert the objectives of the
10-year Socio-economic Development Strategy for 2001-2010?
Although there are no differences in expressing the ideas,
certain things are to be highlighted.
First, as far as the timing is
concerned, the 10th National Party Congress set an
objective to soon get the country out of its under-developed
status, indicating that this should be achieved before 2010.
Second, the concept of “underdeveloped
status” could be comprehended in a broader sense, not
necessarily low capita income but also low human development
index and backward socio-economic infrastructure.
Third, norms and criteria on a
modern industrial country are interpreted more profoundly, in
tandem with world indicators in the stage for knowledge-based
economy.
With regard to the ground for
the 10th National Congress to set overall goals and
objectives, it can be asserted that the foundation has been
laid from the achievements by implementing the resolution of
the 9th National Party Congress adopted five years
before and the overall 20 years of renovation.
Evaluating the progress in the
past five years, the 10th National Party Congress
states that Vietnam’s socio-economic development in the
2001-2005 period recorded very important achievements but
still below the country’s capacity.
Such achievements can be
characterised by fairly high economic growth, economic
structure being adjusted towards industrialisation,
modernisation; social capital increasing fast, the institution
of a socialist-oriented market economy beginning to take shape
with stable macro economic development. In the meantime,
international economic performance and external economic
relations have made important progress alongside
socio-cultural development and improving human development
index...
There are figures and data to
back up realities. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the
2001-2005 period increased by 7.51% on average. In 2005, GDP
accounted for VND 838,000 billion (or US $52.4 billion) with
annual per capita income of about $640. Of the GDP structure,
industry and construction increased from 36.7% in 2000 to 41%
in 2005 (as against the planned 38-39% ratio); Agriculture and
forestry ratio dropped from 24.5% to 20.9% (against the plan
of 20-21%); Service ratio stood at 38.1% (against the planned
41 – 42%)
2005 saw the maximum growth in
the 2001-2005 period. All indicators in production,
construction, service, import-export, social-cultural
development... were the highest by far. For example, food
output reached 39.5 million tones; coal exploited reached 32
million tones; commercial electricity output as high as nearly
46 billion kWh; oil equivalent accounted for nearly 26 million
tones; export turnover stood at US $32.2 billion, accounting
for more than half of GDP. Households living under the poverty
line (by Vietnam’s standard for the 2001-2005 period) dropped
from 17.5% in 2001 to 7% in 2005. Average lifespan of the
population increased from 67.8 (2001) to 71.5 (2005)
However, there are reasons to
say that such achievements are still lowwer than expected.
There remain weaknesses in social-economic development and low
competitiveness. Economic growth rate in the past five years
was still lower than the country’s actual potential and much
lower than several other regional countries in the process of
industrialisation. Economic scale was still small with low per
capita income. Economic restructure remained low. The
socio-economic structure could hardly meet development needs.
There remain many problems in social, cultural aspects that
are slow to be solved...
So high potentials remain
untapped. In reality, both internal and external resources,
have not been made full use. Management and administration
could have made more progress.
On the whole, socio-economic
achievements in the 2001-2005 period have contributed
significantly to the general progress of the 20 years of
renovation in Vietnam. Such merits have helped give a facelift
to the country, raising the country’s profile in international
arena. This has laid a foundation for the 10th
National Party Congress to publish lines and policies to take
the country out of underdevelopment before 2010 as mentioned
before.
Leap by 2010 and preparations for leap by
2020
The leap by 2010 marks an end of the
Strategy for socio-economic development between 2001 and 2010,
the initial stage of accelerating industrialisation and
modernisation in the country to embark on the following
10-year stage till 2020 for socio-economic development. That
is a qualitative leap forward, taking Vietnam from the state
of underdevelopment to a higher level of development. Or in
other terms of the World Bank, from the low income brackets
(estimated at $950/person by 2010) to the average income
brackets (over $950/person/year).
The overall goals on
socio-economic development between now and 2010 have been
made clear already from the beginning of this article. To
realise these goals, the Party, State and people have the
tasks of trying by all means to bring into full play
achievements and advantages while minimising weaknesses and
deficiencies, making full use of resources to further steps of
development. Major tasks for this period include the
following:
1.
Liberate and develop vigorously
production forces, fully tapping all potentials and resources
to create a breakthrough in infrastructure construction and
economic restructuring, increasing quality and
competitiveness, getting the country out of the low income
brackets.
2.
Transforming into the market economy,
abiding by principles of the market mechanism, establishing
different forms of market and mechanisms of socialist
orientation suited to Vietnam’s conditions.
3.
Proactively expanding international
economic integration, external economic relations to link to
heightening economic independence and self-reliance.
4.
Developing vigorously science and
technology, education and training; raising quality of human
resources, meeting the needs of industrialisation and
modernisation and development of a knowledge-based economy.
5.
Creating a swift change in cultural,
moral and lifestyles development; containing population
growth, improving people’s physique and healthcare as well as
the environment.
6.
Practicing social progress and equality,
generating employment, encouraging honest means to create
wealth; reducing hunger and poverty; developing social
security and welfare system; warding off social evils.
7.
Reinforcing the bloc of great national
unity, promoting democracy, raising efficiency of a socialist
rule-of-law State, making positive change in administrative
reforms, preventing and wiping out red tape, corruption and
wastefulness.
8.
Strengthening national defence and
security, creating social-political stability, expanding
external relations, maintaining a peaceful and stable
environment, creating favourable conditions for national
construction and defence.
The 10th National
Party Congress has also proposed the following indicators and
orientations:
Economy: Average GDP for the
next five years is expected to reach 7.5-8% per annum and
eventually more than 8% annually; GDP by 2010 will increase by
2.1 times compared to that of 2000. Per capita income reaches
about US $1,050-1,100.
By 2010 structure by sector in
the GDP may be 15-16% for agriculture; 43-44% for industry and
construction; service by 40-41%. Total export turnover
increases by 16% per year. State budget from GDP will grow by
21-22%. Social inputs will account for 40% of GDP.
Society: By 2010, population
growth rate would stand at 1.14%; Agricultural workforce would
account for less than half of the total labour force. In the
next five years, employment would be generated for some 8
million people. By 2010: the rate of poor households (by new
norms) would drop to 10-11%. Secondary school education would
be universalised; striving for 200 university and college
students out of every 10,000 people; Employees or labourers
having undergone training would account for 40% of the total
social workforce. There will be seven doctors out of 10,000
people. Mortality rate for children under one year of age
would be 16 per thousand. Average life expectancy is 72.
Environment: By 2010, forest
cover would be 42-43%; 95% of urban population and 75% of
rural population will have access to safe water; 100% of new
production establishments shall apply clean technology or be
equipped with devices to lessen pollution or to treat waste...
It’s a fierce struggle to
implement resolutions of the 10th National Party
Congress in general and socio-economic development in
particular. The country is facing both major opportunities and
challenges.
The leap forward by 2010 has
been prepared from five years implementing the resolutions of
the 9th National Party Congress and 20 years of
renovation. The leap by 2010 would lay the groundwork for the
leap by 2020. Getting the country out of an underdeveloped
status by 2010 and basically making it a modern industrial
nation by 2020 should be realised as soon as possible. To this
end, in the next five years, the country will go out of its
way, gather all its mind and main to successfully create the
leap by 2010.
By HA DANG |
